Every election season, several institutions and organizations conduct surveys that attempt to show voter preference in the run-up to the polls. In recent months, a certain group called “SPLAT Communications” conducted a series of election polls – which they call “Kalye Surveys,” with the results usually posted on social media.
On February 20, Facebook page Mahal Namin Ang Pilipinas posted photos of the latest SPLAT Communications “Kalye Survey” results showing that Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has a big lead in the presidential run, at 92.13% voter preference. In the post’s caption, the page claims the survey proves that Marcos Jr. is still the preferred presidential candidate of Overseas Filipino Workers.
Unlike election surveys conducted by institutions like Social Weather Stations or Pulse Asia, however, SPLAT Communications’ “Kalye Survey” results are mostly bereft of essential context, including the methodology used to conduct the surveys.
Claim:
Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is leading in “Kalye Surveys”
Rating:
MISSING CONTEXT
Facts:
It is important to note that some other organizations and institutions are also doing informal surveys for the upcoming polls, but are not misrepresenting their findings as statistically sound. One such effort has been done by Rappler, which conducts its own “Kalye Survey.” In publishing their “Kalye Survey” findings, Rappler prefaces their reports with a note to the reader that the effort only “seeks to get a random pulse of sentiments on the ground during a particular period of time and in a particular place” and is “by no means indicative of scientific trends among potential voters.”
SPLAT Communications’ version of “Kalye Survey” tells a different story. Even if the group isn’t explaining the methodology they employed, they are unabashedly presenting results as statistical findings that have gone through rigorous scientific processes.
The proliferation of such suspicious online surveys has prompted the faculty of the University of the Philippines (UP) School of Statistics to release a statement of concern.
“We have been observing these practices, including surveys not based on random samplings, such as videos of ‘kalye surveys’ being done by some vloggers and suspicious online surveys, especially on Twitter and Facebook. We are dismayed by their cavalier disregard for the principles of data gathering,” the statement read.
The statisticians explained that employing unscientific selection strategies can generate “biased” results. “This happens when the sample tends to favor a segment of the population. Data collection processes may also generate bias, such as when an interviewer purposely affects the answers of the respondents” the statisticians explained.
SPLAT Communications, meanwhile, has already been investigated by the group WE THE PVBLIC, and in their recent report, it was shown that the supposed “Kalye Survey” originator conducts itself on social media like a “troll.” “At a glance at its social accounts, it’s tough to classify SPLAT Communications as a reputable firm. One might say their contents are reminiscent of the trolls that have littered the Internet,” WE THE PVBLIC noted.
WE THE PVBLIC also questioned the group’s survey methodology, saying, “Unlike Pulse Asia, which publishes a detailed breakdown of regions, social classes, and other factors involved in their survey, SPLAT does not have any of these…SPLAT claims it surveyed around 13,000 respondents, but who these respondents are is unclear.”
Why It Matters:
Several critics have long argued that election surveys tend to be tools for “mind conditioning.” These criticisms, however, are usually answered by data scientists by assuring the public that polls undergo rigorous scientific procedures.
SPLAT Communications’ “Kalye Surveys” are a whole different matter. While the group only has minimal social media presence, with its page having 176 likes and 208 followers, the way the results of its “kalye surveys” are echoed on social media sparks concern and warrants further investigation, as its distribution appears to be a concerted and systematic effort. SPLAT also uses these supposed survey results to make videos that they post on their YouTube channel, which has over 10,500 subscribers. – Rome Medina and Neil Dizon
Altermidya Network is part of #FactsFirstPH which brings together various sectors that are committed to promoting truth in the public space, and exacting accountability on those who harm it with lies. For those interested to join the initiative, email info@factsfirst.ph.
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